Roland Soong back in 2000 talks about when a technological innovation is introduced, not everyone adopts it at the same moment.  Rather, there will be innovators and there will also be laggards.  Based upon the examination of a large number of studies in innovation diffusion, Rogers proposed a method of adopter categorization.

First, it was observed that the time to adoption follows the bell-shaped Gaussian curve when the frequency histogram is plotted against time.  In turn, this meant that the cumulative number of adopters follows an S-shaped curve (see example).  Rogers suggested that the normal curve be discretized as follows:

1. the first 2.5% of the adopters are the “innovators”
2. the next 13.5% of the adopters are the “early adopters”
3. the next 34% of the adopters are the “early majority”
4. the next 34% of the adopters are the “late majority”
5. the last 16% of the adopters are the “laggards”

To read the full article, click the link on Early Adopters of Technological Innovations.  For more information about what’s going to be big next, why not impress your friends and colleagues by learning about Web4.